Outfield / Utility Projections

Here are my projections for OF (including UTIL).  Ordered by overall value in the traditional 5x5 categories listed in RED.  Additional players will be added as time permits.

(note: HBP are included in BB for these projections)
(click to enlarge image)

Shortstop Projections

Here are my projections for SS.  Ordered by overall value in the traditional 5x5 categories listed in RED.  Additional players will be added as time permits.

(note: HBP are included in BB for these projections)

3rd Base Projections

Here are my projections for 3B.  Ordered by overall value in the traditional 5x5 categories listed in RED.  Additional players will be added as time permits.

(note: HBP are included in BB for these projections)

2nd Base Projections

Here are my projections for 2B.  Ordered by overall value in the traditional 5x5 categories listed in RED.  Additional players will be added as time permits.


(note: HBP are included in BB for these projections)

2010 1st Base Projections

Here are my projections for 1B.  Several players with 1B eligibility (20 games played last year, and listed in RED) are included for comparison purposes even though they will likely be rostered at their other position for most teams.  The players are sorted according to their overall ranking using the standard 5x5 categories listed in RED.

(note: HBP are included in BB for these projections)

2010 Catcher Projections

Here are my 2010 Projections for Catchers.  I'm still working on some of the lower-tier options, and will update the list as time permits.  I've tried to include most of the categories that you would likely encounter in any of your leagues.  The list is sorted in overall value for the standard 5x5 categories listed in RED.


(note: HBP are included in BB for these projections)

Quality Start Projections

The "Quality Start" is gaining popularity as a category in custom leagues, either in addition to, or even in place of Wins.  Custom leagues setup on sites like ESPN or Yahoo! will include QS in the projections specific to your league, but not many of the widely popular projection systems include QS.

So for those that don't put as much stock into the hosting site projections and/or like to build their own spreadsheets to manipulate the data on their own, here is a simple formula (drawn from the 329 "qualified starters" during 2006-2009) that will give you a nice idea of how many QS to project.

xQS = GS * (.4650115 - (ERA * .0872381) + ((IP/GS) * .0746775))

This obviously depends on your confidence in the ERA projection you are using, but assuming you are comfortable with those, this formula will be a fairly decent indicator of the # of QS you can project, with an 83% correlation coefficient and a .69 R² using multiple regression analysis.

Here are a couple of random 2010 examples using some projections available on FanGraphs as well as my own.

Roy Halladay (Bill James) - 33 GS, 240 IP, 3.23 ERA - projected 24 xQS

Roy Halladay (CHONE) - 30 GS, 218 IP, 3.22 ERA - projected 22 xQS
Roy Halladay (FJ) - 32 GS, 237 IP,  3.29 ERA - 23 QS

Aaron Harang (Bill James) - 32 GS, 211 IP, 4.18 ERA - projected 19 xQS

Aaron Harang (CHONE) - 28 GS, 182 IP, 4.10 ERA - projected 17 xQS

Aaron Harang (FJ) - 30 GS, 206 IP, 4.11 ERA - 17 QS

Jon Lester (Bill James) - 31 GS, 206 IP, 3.84 - projected 19 xQS

Jon Lester (CHONE) - 30 GS, 181 IP, 3.63 - projected 18 xQS
Jon Lester (FJ) - 32 GS, 185 IP, 3.79 ERA - 19 QS

In general, over 30 starts, each +/- .38 in projected ERA and/or +/- in projected 13.33 IP should change your QS projection by 1.

WELCOME

Why do we play fantasy sports?  There are many reasons I suspect, and they most certainly differ in both scope and magnitude for each individual.  Some play for the competition, others for a chance at financial gain, and many probably join leagues as a good way to maintain old friendships (or start new ones).  For most of us, it is likely a blend of all three of these, in addition to many other specific individual reasons.  To that end, one goal of this endeavor will be an attempt to develop overall strategies that blend traditional advice and forecasting with your general goals for playing.

While I love playing in leagues, I also derive a great deal of enjoyment from setting up and running them as well, so another focal point will be taking a look at things from a commissioner's perspective.  Having your finger on the pulse of fellow league members as it relates to the above is crucial when determining your league's setup, rules, and administration.  Whether most of your leagues are "standard", highly customized or somewhere in between, gaining exposure to different formats is not only a great way to maybe find a little tidbit to make your other leagues more enjoyable, but also a great way to improve your overall fantasy ability.

As far as projections and advice go, I'm certainly inclined to take a very sabermetrical approach to things and base my numbers and opinions on the core underlying skills that players have demonstrated rather than the actual outputs they've produced. There are just too many variables in play to very accurately predict the future performance of one individual, but with some fundamental reasoning, one can certainly at least narrow the gap between predicted and actual stats and/or become more accurate at determining the likelihood of a player improving or declining.

In the end though, improvement and personal enjoyment should come from gaining information and applying it to your own opinions and thoughts.  That is the ultimate goal here, to provide a bit of knowledge or a different viewpoint you may not have considered before, and that maybe you can use that information for your benefit.  There are many great sites available and I encourage you to use every resource you can, but as a means to your end, not as the end itself. And remember, the lead-in was "Why do we PLAY fantasy sports?", so have some fun along the way.